Can the NBA Kings Finally Make a Playoff Run This Season?

I remember sitting in the Golden 1 Center last season, watching the Kings blow yet another fourth-quarter lead against the Lakers. The frustration in the arena was palpable - you could feel decades of disappointment hanging in the air like Sacramento's summer heat. This franchise hasn't seen the playoffs since 2006, when I was still in high school dreaming about my own basketball career. Now, as someone who's covered the NBA for over a decade, I've seen plenty of teams promise turnaround seasons, but something feels different about this Kings squad.

Let's talk about that heartbreaking play-in tournament loss to New Orleans last April. The Kings were up by 13 points in the first half, looking like they'd finally exorcise their postseason demons. Then Zion Williamson happened. The big man dropped 40 points before leaving with an injury, and the Pelicans clawed back to eliminate Sacramento 105-98. I was courtside that night, and the collapse felt familiar - like watching someone carefully build a house of cards only to have it collapse from a slight breeze. The locker room afterward was quieter than I've ever seen it, with players barely whispering to each other while packing their bags.

This brings me to something crucial I've observed about struggling teams - the danger of early success. Remember that reference about TNT making sure something won't happen again for a Terrafirma team that surprised everyone by winning their first game? Well, that's exactly what happened to the Kings last season. They started 0-4, then went on a surprising 6-1 run that had everyone thinking "this is it!" Only it wasn't. That early success created unrealistic expectations that ultimately crushed them when reality set in. I've seen this pattern across sports - unexpected wins early can sometimes do more harm than good by masking underlying issues.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Sacramento finished 46-36 last season, which would normally get you into the playoffs in most years. But in the loaded Western Conference, it only earned them the 9th seed and another early vacation. Their defense ranked 24th in the league, allowing 116.8 points per game - you simply can't win consistently with those numbers. I've crunched the analytics, and teams allowing 115+ points per game make the conference finals approximately 12% of the time over the past decade. The math doesn't lie.

What gives me hope this year is the continuity they've maintained. Domantas Sabonis (19.4 PPG, 13.7 RPG) and De'Aaron Fox (26.6 PPG) have now played 147 games together, developing chemistry that can't be manufactured overnight. I've watched them run that dribble-handoff action hundreds of times, and it's become nearly unstoppable when they're in rhythm. Keegan Murray made 206 threes last season at 35.8% - solid numbers for a sophomore, though I'd like to see that percentage climb to around 38% this year.

The Western Conference hasn't gotten any easier though. Denver remains the defending champion, Phoenix added Bradley Beal to their already stacked roster, and the Lakers somehow always figure things out come playoff time. I'd estimate Sacramento needs at least 48 wins to secure a top-6 seed, meaning they have to improve by at least two games in the standings. That might not sound like much, but in this conference, every win feels like pulling teeth.

Here's what I love about their offseason moves - they didn't panic and blow up the core. Instead, they signed EuroLeague star Sasha Vezenkov, a 6'9" forward who shot 38% from three-point range overseas. Having covered international basketball for years, I can tell you this guy's shooting translates - his release is quicker than most people realize. They also added depth with JaVale McGee, who brings championship experience from his time with Golden State and Lakers. These are smart, targeted additions rather than swinging for the fences on big names that might not fit.

The schedule does them some favors early. Of their first 15 games, only 6 are against playoff teams from last season. They need to bank wins during this stretch because December gets brutal with road games at Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. I've learned that playoff teams often secure their spot by how they handle these softer portions of the schedule. Go 11-4 during that opening stretch, and they're positioned beautifully. Go 8-7, and they're likely fighting for play-in position again.

My biggest concern remains their late-game execution. In games within 5 points during the final 3 minutes, Sacramento went 18-24 last season. That's simply not good enough. I've charted their crunch-time offense, and it often devolves into Fox isolation plays rather than the ball movement that gets them leads earlier in games. Coach Mike Brown needs to develop more reliable sets for these moments - maybe incorporating more Sabonis post-ups or Murray corner threes.

The fanbase deserves this more than anyone. I've never seen a more loyal group than Kings fans, who packed that arena night after night during some truly miserable seasons. The "Light the Beam" tradition they started last year became one of the league's best stories - that purple laser shooting into the Sacramento sky after every win represented hope in a city that's seen too little of it. I get chills every time I see it.

So can they finally break the drought? My heart says yes, but my head says it's going to be incredibly tight. I'm predicting they finish 48-34, good for the 7th seed and a first-round matchup against Denver. They might not win that series, but just getting there would represent massive progress. Sometimes in sports, you need to learn how to make the playoffs before you can learn how to win in them. This feels like that necessary step for Sacramento - the year they finally stop being the league's lovable losers and become legitimate contenders. The beam awaits.